Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 11.145977 12.783184 14.550588 16.596984 18.897663 21.400732 24.326534
2025-04-27 8.746323 10.957018 13.531813 16.738464 20.610159 25.118197 30.747851
2025-05-04 7.435452 9.862720 12.831003 16.702376 21.589682 27.523351 35.237963
2025-05-11 6.331458 8.848243 12.065187 16.438540 22.182756 29.418546 39.162989
2025-05-18 5.601114 8.190124 11.628092 16.470644 23.048413 31.594838 43.447253
2025-05-25 5.060436 7.712122 11.357615 16.659427 24.080887 33.992668 48.099779
2025-06-01 4.548423 7.207928 10.985290 16.645320 24.792021 35.951592 52.216134
2025-06-08 4.072408 6.699941 10.549831 16.484148 25.252765 37.552647 55.879918
2025-06-15 3.742799 6.374781 10.343277 16.620937 26.120966 39.735883 60.430438
2025-06-22 3.538493 6.221538 10.374358 17.100062 27.500068 42.695193 66.206931
2025-06-29 3.206698 5.828192 9.997564 16.916199 27.854193 44.153671 69.835836
2025-07-06 2.785959 5.244252 9.267666 16.116264 27.196321 44.048526 71.103429
2025-07-13 2.635269 5.113596 9.271255 16.504621 28.439924 46.910857 77.037913
2025-07-20 2.482223 4.964106 9.230718 16.814900 29.572769 49.653866 82.915190
2025-07-27 2.276391 4.696975 8.964469 16.719482 30.024377 51.330456 87.175814
2025-08-03 2.068415 4.404456 8.628520 16.475733 30.205224 52.569487 90.778831
2025-08-10 1.921131 4.212995 8.455955 16.500797 30.832489 54.545975 95.634871
2025-08-17 1.810196 4.081828 8.381790 16.692392 31.749456 57.028879 101.407201
2025-08-24 1.681975 3.902677 8.202805 16.677389 32.296433 58.908196 106.244191
2025-08-31 1.547591 3.696927 7.955878 16.516239 32.567075 60.320781 110.341072
2025-09-07 1.459163 3.579890 7.871466 16.653161 33.377314 62.682412 116.126651
2025-09-14 1.414130 3.553140 7.963620 17.133155 34.838028 66.227556 124.071333
2025-09-21 1.304243 3.370357 7.725272 16.948960 35.046197 67.571036 128.232457